Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.767002 4.091709 4.449114 4.875157 5.373879 5.945228 6.658338
2025-02-02 3.417878 3.862815 4.387838 5.065868 5.938645 7.055796 8.652165
2025-02-09 3.176437 3.686188 4.316987 5.180003 6.374784 8.050788 10.759419
2025-02-16 2.935073 3.467259 4.147618 5.117403 6.534742 8.672095 12.511467
2025-02-23 2.752625 3.298863 4.016065 5.074314 6.695938 9.309366 14.522510
2025-03-02 2.599737 3.152543 3.894568 5.021974 6.822613 9.906444 16.727367
2025-03-09 2.470583 3.026107 3.786057 4.970722 6.934796 10.496382 19.242580
2025-03-16 2.371317 2.932213 3.713531 4.962304 7.111327 11.247094 22.672986
2025-03-23 2.309243 2.884793 3.702455 5.045972 7.458400 12.442380 28.516406
2025-03-30 2.206828 2.773262 3.587286 4.946997 7.452487 12.866865 32.316016
2025-04-06 2.114114 2.670472 3.478084 4.846799 7.428141 13.243506 36.508095
2025-04-13 2.009388 2.545255 3.327366 4.663408 7.215713 13.102725 38.231306
2025-04-20 1.973801 2.520730 3.331936 4.750940 7.569991 14.573673 52.074316
2025-04-27 1.962218 2.530705 3.390492 4.939185 8.173303 17.058625 86.702437
2025-05-04 1.934427 2.514406 3.405364 5.049007 8.628727 19.396099 153.712327
2025-05-11 1.875462 2.447611 3.333697 4.989047 8.676811 20.352924 227.897131
2025-05-18 1.824185 2.390412 3.274572 4.947743 8.764064 21.535632 404.320510
2025-05-25 1.774718 2.333970 3.213628 4.897556 8.821451 22.657283 924.360357
2025-06-01 1.728572 2.280913 3.155639 4.848397 8.874375 23.825122 5899.678314
2025-06-08 1.692355 2.242036 3.119652 4.840321 9.036293 25.681776 NaN
2025-06-15 1.672967 2.228880 3.126770 4.920568 9.458647 29.414511 NaN
2025-06-22 1.626270 2.170489 3.052683 4.825636 9.364375 30.030474 NaN
2025-06-29 1.581711 2.114231 2.980175 4.729477 9.254281 30.509664 NaN